Yesterday, I had the honor and privilege of speaking at my Wellington Rotary Club about Artificial Intelligence (AI). The title of my presentation was “AI: How It Will Change Healthcare and Your Profession.” Discussing AI in just 20 minutes was challenging — it’s such a complex subject, especially when speaking to friends I’ve known and cared about for nearly 20 years. I went over the allotted time and received many great questions. During my talk, I referenced the World Economic Forum (WEF) report we started discussing in our last blog. I hoped to give them a reality check. Meanwhile, I was also watching the U.S. and global stock market reactions — possibly watched by billions. The Dow Jones was down 3.98%, the S&P 500 was down 4.84%, and the NASDAQ had fallen by 5.97%. What people often forget in moments like these is how high those valuations were in the first place. But that’s a conversation for another time.
What If AI Is Part of the Formula or Catalyst?
President Trump’s sweeping executive order to impose extensive tariffs on imports from nearly all major U.S. trading partners has ignited substantial debate. Sharp divisions have emerged among foreign governments, analysts, and policymakers. Critics quickly labeled the move as protectionist and politically motivated, arguing it would harm both the U.S. and the global economy. Supporters, on the other hand, assert that these tariffs restore national economic sovereignty, providing vital protection to American industries.
However, I wonder if this conventional discourse is overlooking a deeper transformation reshaping global economic dynamics — the role of artificial intelligence (AI). We were taught in economics that economic integration and globalization traditionally depended on comparative advantages in labor and resource availability. Manufacturing typically flowed to regions with lower labor costs, resulting in complex global supply chains. Yet, this model — though efficient — has long been vulnerable to social tensions and unexpected technological disruptions.
One emerging view is that AI is redefining global production in ways we never anticipated. By automating increasingly complex cognitive tasks like forecasting, design, coordination, and even robotics, AI could reduce the reliance on wage arbitrage as the key driver of manufacturing decisions. Instead, production decisions might increasingly be based on access to digital infrastructure, vast data repositories, and institutional capabilities. If this is true, the cost differentials between traditionally low-cost manufacturing regions like China and advanced hubs like Germany — or emerging ones like India and Vietnam — may diminish substantially.
The Implications of AI-Driven Global Production
If AI-driven automation narrows these cost gaps, nations may find it economically feasible to reconfigure their production strategies. The new calculus may not be based purely on efficiency but on resilience, sovereignty, and strategic developmental goals. I recently had a conversation with my son about how it might take years to reconfigure global supply chains — from trucking and air to rail and sea. We witnessed how COVID-19 disruptions, both in the West and in China, severely impacted supply chains, contributing to U.S. inflation.
Could Trump’s tariffs, though controversial, be part of a broader shift reflecting a new strategic approach — one heavily influenced by AI?
A Historical Perspective
History tells us that protectionism alone is rarely the optimal solution. Economists often point to the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which contributed to the Great Depression, as evidence of the dangers of indiscriminate tariffs. Protectionist policies have often led to inefficiencies, market distortions, and rent-seeking behaviors, rather than sustained industrial growth. However, dismissing all forms of trade intervention as economically irrational is shortsighted. There are historical examples — such as Japan’s postwar industrial growth, Korea’s leap into technology-intensive industries, and Brazil’s targeted industrial expansion — that show well-calibrated protective measures, when combined with strategic investments and reforms, can foster significant economic progress.
A New Era with AI: Is It Different This Time?
Under the “AI-first” theory, tariffs may serve as short-term tools to provide the U.S. with a temporary buffer, allowing domestic industries time to adapt to an AI-driven economy. Successfully navigating this transition will require substantial investments in education and training to equip workers with AI-compatible skills, alongside financial structures that support enterprises adopting transformative digital technologies. Additionally, a regulatory framework will be essential to ensure the widespread diffusion of innovation while preventing monopolization and concentration of power.
Without such a strategy, however, tariffs risk becoming populist tools that raise consumer prices without boosting productivity or innovation. Worse still, they could exacerbate geopolitical tensions, fostering techno-nationalism where countries prioritize technological self-sufficiency over global collaboration, which could fragment the global economy even further.
How Could This Impact Healthcare?
In healthcare — an area we care deeply about — Trump’s tariffs, combined with the growing impact of AI, pose distinct challenges and opportunities. The majority (69%) of U.S.-marketed medical devices are manufactured outside of the U.S. From pharmaceuticals (some subject to 10% tariffs) to diagnostic equipment (with no exemptions for radiology, for example), these tariffs could lead to delays in new equipment or increased healthcare costs in the long run.
Providers and hospitals that are heavily dependent on imports may face immediate financial strain, resulting in higher costs that could be passed on to consumers, payors, or absorbed through contracts. The question arises: Do they have a tariff adjustment mechanism in place?
This will also affect payers and employers. Patients could see increases in out-of-pocket costs, particularly for medications or advanced medical technologies that are predominantly manufactured abroad.
Is There a Silver Lining?
However, in the medium to long term, these tariffs could accelerate beneficial changes within the U.S. healthcare system. AI’s advanced capabilities might enable sophisticated domestic production methods that reduce reliance on international manufacturing. With AI-driven automation, reshoring pharmaceutical and medical device production could become economically viable, gradually stabilizing costs and improving the resilience of healthcare supply chains. AI-powered analytics and supply-chain management could further enhance system responsiveness, enabling healthcare providers to adjust quickly to market disruptions or shortages.
Investment in U.S. Health-Tech: A Growing Opportunity
Moreover, the combination of tariffs and AI innovation could spur significant investment in domestic health-tech industries. Venture capital, recognizing both tariff-induced trade barriers and AI-driven efficiencies, may increasingly favor investments in U.S.-based healthcare innovation. This shift could accelerate the development of precision medicine, remote patient monitoring technologies, AI-driven diagnostics, and personalized wellness platforms, ultimately benefiting consumer health.
Our Focus: Empowering Consumers Is More Important Than Ever
We continue to see, if not increase, opportunities to empower consumers with control over their healthcare data. Using AI to educate and assist them in navigating an increasingly complex healthcare landscape will become crucial. If certain procedures, drugs, or technologies become more expensive due to tariffs, payors may become more inclined to deny coverage. In response, we want to empower consumers with AI tools to challenge these denials and fight back.
About HealthScoreAI ™
Healthcare is at a tipping point, and HealthScoreAI is positioning to revolutionize the industry by giving consumers control over their health data and unlocking its immense value. U.S. healthcare annual spending has exceeded $5 trillion with little improvement in outcomes. Despite advances, technology has failed to reduce costs or improve care. Meanwhile, 3,000 exabytes of consumer health data remain trapped in fragmented USA systems of 500 EHRs, leaving consumers and doctors without a complete picture of care.
HealthScoreAI seeks to provide a unique solution, acting as a data surrogate for consumers and offering an unbiased holistic view of their health. Giving Consumers tools to respond to denial of care by insurers, we aim to bridge gaps in healthcare access and outcomes. By monetizing de-identified data, HealthScoreAI seeks to share revenue with consumers, potentially creating a new $100 billion market value opportunity. With near-universal EHR adoption in the USA, and advances in technology, now is the perfect time to capitalize on the data available, practical use of AI and the empowering of consumers, in particular the 13,000 tech savvy baby boomers turning 65 every single day and entering the Medicare system for the first time. Our team, with deep healthcare and tech expertise, holds U.S. patents and a proven track record of scaling companies and leading them to IPO.
Noel J. Guillama-Alvarez
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nguillama/
+1-561-904-9477, Ext 355
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Annex-II.pdf
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/health-care/how-trump-tariffs-will-affect-ge-healthcare